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Colorado Moose Draw Odds
March 4, 2010.
Colorado's unique "weighted points" system makes it difficult to calculated draw odds for moose, goat, and sheep tags. I crunched the numbers as best I could, and included my estimates of draw odds for Colorado moose below. The bottom line on draw odds: They're not great, no matter how many points you have.
To be eligible to draw a moose tag in Colorado, you first have to build up 3 preference points over the course of 3 years.
After you have your 3 preference points, you're eligible to draw a tag. For each year you do not draw, you recieve a "weighted point" that increases your draw odds for the next year.
As of 2010, the most points anyone can have is 3 Preference Points plus 9 Weighted Points.
(For more on Colorado's weighted point system, see our update from last year.)
Non-Residents
Non-Residents are allowed to apply for fewer units that Residents, but acutally have better draw odds than Residents due to the lower numbers of applicants. My estimates of non-resident draw odds for bull moose tags in all open units are shown below:
| Number of Weighted Points (You must have 3 Preference Points to be eligible to draw) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unit |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% |
7,8,191 |
0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
17 |
1.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% |
18,181 |
0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% |
171 |
0.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% |
Units 17 and 171 stand out as the best picks for a non-resident.
(I hunted 171 back in 2005. Saw a nice 35-incher the night before the season opened. Hunted my brains out for 6 days of the 9 day sesaon, never saw another bull -- except for a monster B&C-class bull on private land. It's got a reputation as a good unit, I just had some really tough luck going.)
Residents
My estimates for Resident draw odds for bull moose tags in some of the better-known units are shown below:
| Number of Weighted Points (You must have 3 Preference Points to be eligible to draw) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unit |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
7,8,191 |
0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
16 |
0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% |
17 |
0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% |
18,181 |
0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
19 |
0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
171 |
0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% |
Silver Spur Ranch |
0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
Don't Like Those Odds?
If you want to boost your chances, you might also want to consider the annual raffle for a Colorado moose tag.
Good luck on the draws. You can keep track of my apps on the Hunt The West homepage.
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